Economist to Today’s Teens: “Start Saving Now”

first_img in Daily Dose, Featured, Market Studies, News January 31, 2019 1,127 Views Home / Daily Dose / Economist to Today’s Teens: “Start Saving Now” The Week Ahead: Nearing the Forbearance Exit 2 days ago The Best Markets For Residential Property Investors 2 days ago Governmental Measures Target Expanded Access to Affordable Housing 2 days ago Danielle Hale Generation Z Home Prices Homeownership Median Home Price Realtor.com 2019-01-31 Donna Joseph Data Provider Black Knight to Acquire Top of Mind 2 days ago Governmental Measures Target Expanded Access to Affordable Housing 2 days ago About Author: Donna Joseph Tagged with: Danielle Hale Generation Z Home Prices Homeownership Median Home Price Realtor.com Servicers Navigate the Post-Pandemic World 2 days ago Sign up for DS News Daily Donna Joseph is a Dallas-based writer who covers technology, HR best practices, and a mix of lifestyle topics. She is a seasoned PR professional with an extensive background in content creation and corporate communications. Joseph holds a B.A. in Sociology and M.A. in Mass Communication, both from the University of Bangalore, India. She is currently working on two books, both dealing with women-centric issues prevalent in oppressive as well as progressive societies. She can be reached at [email protected] center_img The Best Markets For Residential Property Investors 2 days ago Servicers Navigate the Post-Pandemic World 2 days ago Generation Z needs to start saving $304 a month now to buy a home by age 30, according to a new analysis by Realtor.com. The homeownership success of this group will largely depend on the location. Midwest and South are considered regions with more affordable options, it indicated. The analysis titled “The Home of Home Search” shows that nearly 80 percent of Generation Z wants to own a home before age 30. However, to make their dream of homeownership a reality, they will have to save $304 every month for the next 12 years to buy with a 10 percent down payment plus closing costs on a median-priced home. Currently, the median price of a home in the U.S. is projected to cost $386,310 in 2031, when today’s 18-year-old members of Generation Z turn 30, the analysis pointed out. Realtor.com’s projections based on a 13-year forecast for median home prices in top 100 metros and different down payment savings plans reveal that Generation Z will need to save $1,962 per month will need to save $1,962 per month. The next most expensive locale is San Francisco at $1,439 followed by Los Angeles at $979, and  Honolulu at $946, and California at $877 per month in terms of savings. According to realtor.com’s analysis of Optimal Blue mortgage data, the typical under-30 home buyer used a seven percent down payment to successfully complete their home purchase in 2018. Starting on their 18th birthday, to afford a 10 percent down payment and typical closing costs in the top 10 most expensive metros by the time they turn 30 years old, members of Generation Z will need to save an average of $948 a month. The median-priced home in 2019 is expected to cost $265,000, but over the course of the next 12 years, the price is expected to increase by nearly 50 percent, according to Realtor.com. Youngstown, Ohio, topped the list of the most affordable metros, where Generation Z would only have to save $108 per month, followed by McAllen, Texas; Toledo, Ohio; Wichita, Kansas; and Little Rock, Arkansas. “Choosing to live in one of the U.S.’s larger and more expensive metros, especially on the West Coast, is going to make homeownership a difficult task, but that doesn’t mean that Gen Z should give up on their dreams.The most important thing they can do is start saving as much as possible early on and let compound interest do the heavy lifting for them,”  said Danielle Hale, Chief Economist at Realtor.com. Demand Propels Home Prices Upward 2 days ago Share Save Demand Propels Home Prices Upward 2 days ago Data Provider Black Knight to Acquire Top of Mind 2 days ago Related Articles Economist to Today’s Teens: “Start Saving Now”  Print This Post Previous: Top 25 Women of Law, Part 3 Next: The Industry Pulse: The Latest Buzz in Financial Services Subscribelast_img read more

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One by one, they’re making a difference

first_img Explore Sarah Lockridge-Steckel left Harvard College in 2009 and headed to Memphis, Tenn., where she co-founded The Collective, a nonprofit that works with schools, businesses, and community groups to remove barriers to success for disadvantaged youth.Anne Sung returned home after Commencement in 2000, trading in classes in Harvard Yard to teach in one of Texas’ poorest regions, the Rio Grande Valley on the Mexican border. The lessons from her days with Teach for America resonate today in her role as a trustee of the Houston Independent School District, overseeing the public schools she’d graduated from decades earlier.Fresh from Harvard Law School, Emily Broad Leib went to the rural Mississippi Delta to use her background to improve the lives of residents. Her work there was varied and included one unlikely task early on: Writing a grant for a wood chipper to get rid of fallen tree limbs that were drawing snakes. Now an HLS assistant professor, her experience prompted her to start the Law School’s Mississippi Delta project, which provides public policy and legal help on issues important to the community.The trio are just a sampling of the legions of dedicated, caring, and talented individuals who over the years have brought the skills developed and passions nurtured at Harvard to communities around the country, embracing former Harvard President Charles William Eliot’s admonition, “Depart to Serve Better Thy Country and Thy Kind.” That call to public service, inscribed on Dexter Gate at the edge of the Yard, amounts to a kind of final lesson upon leaving campus.Today the Harvard Gazette is launching a digital project titled “To Serve Better,” featuring dozens of tales of Harvard affiliates like Broad Leib, Sung, and Lockridge-Steckel who returned home — or set up shop in a new home — and worked tirelessly toward the greater good, teaching, inspiring, organizing, legislating, and persevering through setbacks.,The series website contains stories, photos, maps, links, and video chronicling the work of these individuals across the U.S. and its territories. It launches this week with the first wave of 14 from California, Georgia, Iowa, Kansas, Kentucky, Mississippi, Nevada, North Carolina, Tennessee, Texas, South Carolina, South Dakota, Washington, and Washington, D.C.The theme for this first batch is “empower,” and the accounts highlight people who work with small groups or grass-roots organizations to strengthen their communities.The project will eventually include sagas from all 50 states, plus additional ones from U.S. territories and the District of Columbia. They will be posted in waves with the themes of “Create,” focusing on inventors, makers, designers, and artists; “Respond,” dedicated to those who heal, fix, and provide service or aid to others; and “Improve,” spotlighting those who seek to fight injustice, solve problems, and advocate for communities at an institutional level.While working on this project, one thing became clear. While the range of their experiences was wide and varied, all of those profiled shared a similar goal. Take Theresa Reno-Weber, a 2008 Harvard Kennedy School graduate, former U.S. Coast Guard lieutenant, and president and CEO of Metro United Way in Louisville, Ky. This is how she explained what drives her to the work she does: “At my core is a desire to leave any place better than I found it, including the organization in which I work or the community in which I live.” To Serve Better Stories of people committed to public purpose and to making a positive difference in communities throughout the country.last_img read more

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Victor Gloyd Lee Lohrum

first_imgVictor Gloyd Lee Lohrum, age 90, of Milan passed away on Monday, August 10, 2020 at The Waters of Dillsboro. He was born on October 30, 1929 to the late Albert Sr. and Eunice (Elrod) Lohrum in Elrod, Indiana.He grew up along with his brothers and sisters in Elrod and was a graduate of the Class of 1948 from Versailles High School. Shortly after graduation, he entered the United States Army and served two years. He was then asked to return for 2 more years, teaching assembly and rebuilding of small arms and weapons.During his 2nd tenure in the Army, he was stationed in Aberdeen Proving Grounds in Maryland where he met Bernadette Marie Schmidt. They were united in marriage on October 6, 1952 and spent the rest of their years together outside of Elrod until her death in 2004.When they returned home, Vic went to work for the Jefferson Proving Grounds as a weapons tester. His job included testing weapons from tank mines to mortars. He spent several years working in different capacities for the government before retiring in 1986. Additionally, Vic also worked a couple years as an attendant for the Versailles State Park.He is survived by daughter Vincine “Susie” Felix, granddaughter Dana (Jim) Roark, great grandson David Victor“DJ” Brook, as well as sisters Linda Bruce and Alice Mathias. He was preceded in death by his wife Bernadette, son Dan Lohrum, his parents, and brothers Albert Jr., John Lohrum Sr., and Carol “Buz” Lohrum.A visitation will be held on Thursday, August 13 from 4-7 pm at Neal’s Funeral Home in Osgood. Funeral services will be held on Friday, August 14 at 10:00 am, also at the funeral home. Memorials can be given to the Washington Baptist Cemetery fund. Online condolences can be placed at Nealsfuneralhome.net. In accordance with state mandates, mask and social distancing will be enforced.last_img read more

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Ohio State vs. Michigan odds, prediction, betting trends for The Game on Fox

first_imgNo. 2 Ohio State (11-0) travels to Michigan Stadium to face No. 10 Michigan in the latest chapter of The Game. The Buckeyes are looking to continue their perfect season and hand the rival Wolverines their eighth straight loss in the series. Game time is scheduled for noon ET on Fox.This will be the first-time experience for Ohio State coach Ryan Day. He was the offensive coordinator the last two seasons, but this is a rivalry game that can define a coach’s legacy. The Buckeyes lead the nation in scoring offense (49.4) and scoring defense (10.5), but this has always been the game that defines their season. WEEK 14 PICKS: Straight up | Against the spreadMichigan coach Jim Harbaugh is 0-4 against the rival Buckeyes as a head coach, but the Wolverines are peaking at the right time. Shea Patterson has nine touchdown passes in his last two games, and the Wolverines have won by an average margin of 30 points over their last four games.But you can throw those records out the window. “The Game” is on, and Michigan and Ohio State should be another classic. With that in mind, here’s everything you need for Saturday’s matchup:Ohio State vs. Michigan oddsSpread: Ohio State -9Point total: 55.5Moneyline: Ohio State -110, Michigan -110Ohio State is a 9-point favorite, according to odds at Sportsbook Review, and 60 percent of the wagering has come in favor of the Buckeyes.Ohio State vs. Michigan all-time seriesMichigan leads the all-time series 51-47-4, but Ohio State has roared back into the rivalry by winning the last seven meetings and 16 of the last 19 since 2000, including last year’s 62-39 blowout victory at Ohio Stadium.Three trends to know— Ohio State is 7-3 against the spread this season, but they have failed to cover each of the last two weeks against Rutgers and Penn State. The Buckeyes are 3-1 against the spread as road favorites.— The Buckeyes have won the last three meetings in Ann Arbor by an average of 13.7 points per game. Ohio State averages 38.3 points per game in those meetings.— The Wolverines are 0-8 as an underdog under Jim Harbaugh, and that includes a 1-1 against-the-spread record as a home underdog. Michigan is 30-4 at home under Harbaugh, but two of those losses are to Ohio State.WEEK 14 PROJECTIONS: Bowls | PlayoffThree things to watchPatterson lets looseOhio State has the No. 1 pass defense in the FBS at 126.2 yards per game, and defensive end Chase Young is a game-plan wrecker who leads the nation with 16.5 sacks. Expect Harbaugh to go right at that with Patterson, who has grown comfortable in offensive coordinator Josh Gattis’ offense. That has peaked the last two weeks with 750 passing yards, nine touchdowns and one interception. Patterson took six sacks in those two games, so he will have to avoid the fatal turnover with little margin for error.Justin Fields factorMichigan ranks second in the Big Ten in pass defense (161.1), and this is the most aggressive defense the Buckeyes will face. Dwayne Haskins cut up Michigan defensive coordinator Don Brown’s defense with crossing routes last year, and Fields offers the added dimension in the running game. The Wolverines have allowed just nine passing touchdowns this season, but they have been a little more giving against the run (14 touchdowns). If the Wolverines can slow down the 1-2 punch of Fields and J.K. Dobbins in the backfield, then they will have a chance.Nico Collins vs. Jeff OkudahWatch the matchup between Michigan receiver Nico Collins — who leads the Wolverines with 20.9 yards per catch — and Ohio State cornerback Jeff Okudah, who has three interceptions this season. Michigan’s receivers have to win one-on-ones with the Buckeyes’ secondary consistently and quickly to take the pressure off Patterson. The Wolverines had some success with that last season before the game got out of hand.Stat that mattersIt still comes down to running the ball and stopping the run in “The Game.” In the last four meetings, Ohio State averages 47.3 attempts for 262.5 rushing yards per game — an average of 5.6 yards per carry. Michigan averages 36 attempts for 102.3 yards per carry, an average of 2.8 yards per carry. The Wolverines need to be able to establish a running game in order to Ohio State down on both sides to have a chance. MORE: Ohio State, Michigan fans a perfect match with life-saving kidney transplantOhio State vs. Michigan predictionThis could play out like the 2017 game, where Michigan took a 14-0 lead before the Buckeyes settled in and tied the score at halftime. Patterson will make a few big plays in the passing game, but Young and a deep defensive line will eventually get home and force some errant throws. Ohio State will wear on the Wolverines with a relentless running game, and Dobbins will break the game open in the second half. The Buckeyes will take on one more touchdown in the fourth quarter to complete a perfect 12-0 regular season.Final score: Ohio State 36, Michigan 24last_img read more

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13-year-old charged with first-degree murder in FL shooting

first_imgA 13-year-old boy is facing first-degree murder charges in the shooting death of a Florida man.The boy, identified as Vamari Bostic, is accused of fatally shooting 25-year-old James Anthony Bacon following an ongoing dispute, early Thursday.Winter Garden police say the suspect turned himself in after a warrant was issued for his arrest.Authorities previously released a photo of the boy, saying he was “armed and dangerous.”The victim’s mother says that she forgives the young murder suspect.He is expected to face a judge on Friday around 1:30 p.m.This story is developing.last_img

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Sammie’s win completes a full set of titles

first_img14 Jul 2016 Sammie’s win completes a full set of titles Cornwall’s Sammie Giles has won the English women’s amateur championship at West Lancashire – and completed a full set of national titles. She has already won the English women’s stroke play, played last year on another Lancashire course at St Annes Old Links, and she captured the English women’s mid-amateur at Bath in 2014. The 21-year-old from St Mellion (Image © Leaderboard Photography) described herself as excited by her latest win, scoring one-under par over 72 holes, and said: “This one is the most important because it’s the closed championship and you’re playing against all your England team-mates.” Giles, who helped England to victory in the 2015 Women’s Home Internationals, finished ahead of a host of other internationals. Lizzie Prior (Burhill) had to settle for second place for the second year in a row after she finished on level par. Alice Hewson (Berkhamsted) was third on one-over, while Gemma Clews (Delamere Forest) and Sophie Lamb (Clitheroe) were fifth on two-over. Girl international Amelia Williamson (Royal Cromer) achieved her own target with a sixth place finish on three-over. The host club’s Hollie Muse finished 11th on nine-over while Eloise Healey was 32nd. At the start of today’s final 36 holes the lead was shared by Prior, Lamb and Cloe Frankish (Chart Hills) who were all three-under. Giles was tied fifth and marked time in the third round with a level par score which put her three behind Prior, who was the sole leader going into the final round. In the afternoon Giles made her move with two-under 72 which pipped her challengers. “There’s a tough stretch on the back nine, from the 10th to the 13th, and I managed to come out of that one-under, and that was the turning point,” said Giles. “This morning I played pretty steadily but I made so many clubbing errors because the wind was so difficult, it was straight across and really difficult to judge. My short game was great, though, and I made up and down for par pretty much every time I mis-clubbed. “This afternoon we got the clubbing better and I gave myself far more birdie opportunities,” added Giles who, as usual, had her father on the bag. She’s now taking a short break from golf to re-charge after this event and after playing in her regional County Match Week. Her next big date is the defence of her stroke play title at Bristol & Clifton from 16-18 August.  Click here for full scoreslast_img read more

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Take a Video Tour of Tumwater’s Old Brewhouse

first_imgFacebook1.1kTweet0Pin4 Submitted by Olympia Tumwater FoundationThe City of Tumwater, the Olympia-Tumwater Foundation, and Thurston Community Media have teamed up to produce a video tour of the Old Brewhouse. The Olympia Brewery was the community’s largest private employer for a significant part of the past century and many local residents have stories of a family member’s experiences working for the Brewery, including retired brewmaster Paul Knight.Knight hosts the video tour that features historic photos of the workers, the brewing process and the construction of the various buildings on the site. The video includes the founding Schmidt family and how their business made the slogan “It’s the Water” famous. The brewery is the last reminder of the flourishing riverside industries that once formed the heart of Tumwater. Knight describes the crucial role the Olympia Brewing Company played in the history of our community.Tumwater’s Old Brewhouse is an iconic landmark in the community, and influenced the design of many new buildings around the City. The six-story red brick tower is seen by tens of thousands of people each day from I-5. In its prime, the Brewery was a tourist destination, with some accounts that the company gave tours to 100,000 visitors each year. After the 2016 donation of the brick tower to the City of Tumwater, tours of the complex have been restricted in the interest of safety during renovation stages. The City of Tumwater has made preservation of the historic structure and revitalization of the brewing district a priority.last_img read more

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Jagdeo deems coalition Govt unconstitutional, usurper of power

first_imgIn light of Chief Justice Roxane George refusing to set a date by which constitutionally-due early elections ought to be held, Opposition Leader Bharrat Jagdeo has declared that his party – the People’s Progressive Party (PPP) — will now view the coalition Government as unconstitutional.Opposition Leader Bharrat JagdeoAt his weekly press conference on Thursday, Jagdeo explained that this position is being taken since the December 21, 2018 passage of the No-Confidence Motion (NCM) triggered early elections within three months, and since there was no extension by the National Assembly to extend this timeline as required, then General and Regional Elections ought to have been held by March 21, 2019.“My new position in the PPP and based on this new ruling… [is] since March 21 of this year, the Government has been practicing unconstitutional rule. It has been a usurper of power in Guyana. It has acted outside of the provision of our Constitution. We were prepared to allow this to happen after September 18; to be generous and say after September 18, you go into unconstitutional rule. But if they think this ruling helps now, well it only reiterated what we already know that the Government has been a usurper of power since March 21,” Jagdeo posited.According to the Opposition Leader, this now means that every deal and agreement made by the coalition since then will become null and void.Some members of Cabinet“So I saw they’re extending the oil contract – CGX got an extension and I want to say to CGX that that extension is not valid because it was done in a period when we have a caretaker government. I’ve already made it clear that the daily sale of land and all of these things that are being practicing, and not through public processes, are all illegal. And, this is not from June 18 or September 18 but from March 21,” he asserted.Chief Justice (ag)Roxane GeorgeOn Wednesday, Chief Justice Roxane George dismissed an application filed by Christopher Ram, who challenged the constitutionality of ongoing House-to-House Registration and asked the Court to compel the Chief Elections Officer (CEO), Keith Lowenfield, and others to hold elections on or before September 18, which is three months since the Caribbean Court of Justice (CCJ) validated the passage of the NCM against the Government.However, the Chief Justice noted that like the Trinidad-based regional Court ruled, the High Court cannot set a date by which elections ought to be held and that the conduct of House-to-House Registration is not illegal.But she did note that it would be unconstitutional for the registration exercise to remove qualified persons from the voters’ list for reasons other than death or those disqualified under Article 159 (2), (3), or (4).Pointing out that the “right to vote and the right to be registered to vote are sacrosanct”, the High Court Judge said “residence requirements from citizens are no longer a qualification for registration”. This means that persons cannot be removed from the list if they do not re-register, or if they are not in the jurisdiction or otherwise not at their residence during the registration exercise.According to the Opposition Leader, this is a victory for the Opposition, which had joined in on Ram’s legal challenge.“As far as we’re concerned, we achieved the purpose of what we set out to do, that is, to not have Guyanese de-registered by this APNU-led government. They would’ve done this; developed a flawed list, left out thousands of Guyanese, add in some fake names, and then rushed the elections through. That was their aim… but this [ruling] has thwarted that. They can’t touch the database, the NRR (National Register of Registrants)… So it’s a momentous victory, people don’t see that. And it’s not for the PPP, it’s for the Guyanese electorate,” Jagdeo contended.Furthermore, the Chief Justice had ruled too that while it is not up to the court to determine whether House-to-House should be held, it is not the only option available to the Guyana Elections Commission (GECOM) to update the current list. The Court said it is up to the Elections Commission to determine a way forward within the confines of the constitutional provisions.But GECOM at a meeting on Thursday did not come up with any decisions on the holding of early elections, saying that it will await the court’s ruling later this month on a similar case challenging the House-to-House exercise before deciding on the way forward.However, Jagdeo contended that the ongoing registration should be scrapped and the elections body should move to an extended Claims and Objections period during which new qualified persons can get registered.“That is what is required at this point in time, and urgently so, because we’re not operating in the normal elections cycle as the Chief Justice pointed out,” the Opposition Leader stated.last_img read more

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A’s keep rolling; ninth straight win is a breeze

first_imgIt was a suggestion received in light jest at the time: On May 16, Bob Melvin lofted catcher Josh Phegley’s name and game as All-Star worthy.“If you’re … How do we define this win streak? Oakland hasn’t lost a game since May 14, but don’t know the result of a suspended one in Detroit.Let’s keep it simple. Following a 7-1, series-sweeping win over the Mariners, the A’s are winners of nine-straight games.Here are three observations from the game.Josh Phegley making an All-Star case?last_img

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Sandstone Arches Get New Explanation

first_img(Visited 112 times, 1 visits today)FacebookTwitterPinterestSave分享0 The national park signs may need updating.Arches National ParkNatural sandstone arches occur in many parts of the world, most notably in Arches National Park in eastern Utah.  Visitors, upon reading the confident-sounding interpretive signs describing arch formation, might be surprised to learn that the origin of these structures is not fully understood.  In a recent paper in Nature Geoscience, researchers from the Czech Republic who ran some new lab experiments imply that prior theories are incomplete, if not wrong:Weathering and erosion of sandstone produces unique landforms such as arches, alcoves, pedestal rocks and pillars. Gravity-induced stresses have been assumed to not play a role in landform preservation and to instead increase weathering rates. Here we show that increased stress within a landform as a result of vertical loading reduces weathering and erosion rates, using laboratory experiments and numerical modelling. We find that when a cube of locked sand exposed to weathering and erosion processes is experimentally subjected to a sufficiently low vertical stress, the vertical sides of the cube progressively disintegrate into individual grains. As the cross-sectional area under the loading decreases, the vertical stress increases until a critical value is reached. At this threshold, fabric interlocking of sand grains causes the granular sediment to behave like a strong, rock-like material, and the remaining load-bearing pillar or pedestal landform is resistant to further erosion.The new theory is summarized in the BBC News.  In addition, Smithsonian Magazine has an embedded video clip of the experiments.In the authors’ view, gravity is the arch-hero, not the arch-villain.  The gravitational load causes a kind of self-organizing system: the sand grains lock together in the pillars, resisting erosion.  Eventually, of course, erosion wins, and the structure falls. It’s not clear if they can generalize this process to all arches.  They experimented with a particular sand in their home country.  “Critically, the sandstone from Strelec doesn’t contain cementing minerals that help bind the sand particles together,” the Smithsonian article says.  “Instead, the authors found that the stress put on the sandstone causes minerals to interlock and hold the rock together.”  It sounds like this is the best-case scenario to test the idea, because cementing materials would presumably increase the resistance to erosion in the pillars.  Whether this applies to the Entrada Sandstone in Arches National Park is not clear; it also would not seem to apply to granite arches, as pictured below.Mobius Arch (granite) by David CoppedgeWhatever its merits, this new theory turns the old one on its head: “We should not say erosion or weathering carved the forms, as it was the stress field which give the forms the shape,” lead author Jiri Bruthans asserts in the Smithsonian article. “Erosion processes are mere tools controlled by stress.”  The BBC quotes Bruthans comparing the stress field to Michelangelo.  “The stress field is the master sculptor – it tells the weather where to pick.”Not much is said in any of the articles about how long it takes for arches to form.  The Smithsonian says:The Czech team wanted to take a different approach. While doing fieldwork in Strelec quarry in the Bohemian Cretaceous Basin, they noticed that small arches and pillars—only about 2 feet high at most—formed out of the sandstone over mere months or years, rather than the millennial time scales associated with large geologic architecture.The BBC News, though, without a reference, says “The process had proved difficult to study, because natural slabs of sandstone erode over millions of years.”Landscape Arch, by David CoppedgeCreationists like Michael Oard have shown how just a few centuries since the Flood are sufficient (Creation.com, 2010) to form arches.  He quotes secular authors who estimate only tens of thousands of years, not millions, for their formation; in fact, Oard argues, too much time is problematic: the arches should be long gone after even tens of thousands of years.  Dr. Andrew Snelling, creation geologist, agrees, discussing sandstone arches briefly in the latest Answers Research Journal from AiG (July 2014).  “What the park rangers won’t tell you,” Snelling says, is that 43 sandstone arches have collapsed since 1970.  “Their loss is a sober reminder how delicate—and recent—these formations are,” he ends, after providing a Flood model for their formation.  “Rapid processes created them and are now destroying them.”The Nature Geoscience paper is not clear on timeframes, so it is not clear the new theory can speak to the age issue.  For the huge arches that were not observed forming, one can only estimate, considering variables and unknowns.  Did arches form under steady-state processes vs one-time processes (like the Flood)?  What were historical rainfall and wind patterns?  You can’t look at erosion in a desert today and simply assume it’s always been so slow.  It’s possible, in fact, to calculate reasonable upper limits on age of arches by taking conservative erosion rates today, and seeing how far back they can be extrapolated.  If those rule out the “millions of years” interpretation, they show old ages to be a philosophical bias, not a conclusion from the evidence.Two other conclusions can be drawn from this story, though.  One is the use of arches for design inference.  What’s the difference between Landscape Arch pictured above, and the St. Louis Arch?  Clearly the former is natural, and the latter intelligently designed.  Beyond intuition, how can we tell?  Use of such pithy examples can help teachers convey the principles of intelligent design.  (Note: Comparing stress fields to Michelangelo is a personification fallacy.)The other conclusion is that scientific theories are at best tentative, especially when they try to speak of the unobservable past.  The new theory  is partly empirical, because these scientists were able to reproduce some features in the lab.  But can one really scale up a small lab model by several orders of magnitude?  Other factors might intrude at that level.  For what it’s worth, the new theory overturns decades of thought and assumption about how these beautiful structures form, reminding us that science is, at best, a fallible human enterprise.  Remember this story when you read the authoritative-sounding National Park signs.last_img read more

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